그리스 사태 시나리오!

If gov. is formed,

1) muddling through (most likely)

: 유로존 잔류, 그러나 troika의 austerity 중심의 개혁프로그램은 따르지 않을 것. ECB의 은행 지원은 지속될 듯하나 향후 유로존 생존여부는 그리스의 역량에 따라 달라질 것.

2) Slow exit (next-most likely)

: 다른 유로존 국가들이 그리스 탈퇴에 대한 준비책(such as deposit guarantees and liquidity injections by the ECB.)을 세운 상태에서 천천히 진행. 탈퇴의 절차는 그리스 은행이 ECB facility&payment system에서 떨어져 나감에 따라 실현될 듯. 다른 나라들의 방비책이 그리스 탈퇴를 충분히 흡수할 만큼 견고하진 않을 것이며, 그리스 이탈의 전례가 다른 나라의  유로시장 이탈을 야기할 수도 있음.

3)  Fast exit (least likely)

: Greece abandons the euro and introduces a new currency. A “sudden and abrupt” exit wouldn’t give other nations time to prepare and an insufficient firewall could mean an unraveling of the euro area.

If gov is not formed,

: the president must broker a government of national unity, and if that can’t be done, new elections must be held. This is what happened after the May 6 election.(대통령이 중재해야 하고 안되면 재선거)

시리자가 연정수립에 실패하면 3차 재선거는 1. 그리스 재정부족 2. Troika 지원 중단 3. ECB 은행지원이 위기에 빠지는 사태로 갈 수도 있다. (The BofA/Merrill note says were Syriza to fail to form a coalition a third election period would follow in which Greece would run out of money, the Troika would stop providing funds, and the ECB’s support for Greek banks would be at risk.)

이런 경제적 손실에 따라 Troika와의 새로운 지원 프로그램의 협상이 필요해질 것. 더 큰 자금지원으로.

 The economic damage suffered during this period would require a new program to be negotiated with the Troika, with more funds.

Will Greece leave the euro?

-  향후 1~2년 내에 유로존 이탈 가능성 50~75%로 전망. 시리자 정부에서는 더 앞당겨질 것.

(Citigroup Inc. said even under a New Democracy-led government, Greece’s problems are so challenging that there’s a 50 to 75 percent chance it will get pushed out of the euro in the next year or two. That would happen sooner under a Syriza- led government.)

***

Troika : the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank.

Muddling through : to achieve your aims although you are not efficient, do not know what you are doing, do not have the rightequipment, etc.그럭저럭[어떻게 하다 보니] 해 내다

broker : (특히 국가 간의 협상을) 중개하다

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14/greek-vote-outcomes-range-from-coalition-to-euro-exit-scenarios.html

What happens after a government is formed?

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a May 28 note there are three possibilities:

-- Muddling through (most likely): Greece seeks to stay in the euro but doesn’t agree to unconditionally implement the reform program. The most likely consequence is that the Troika ceases payments, though banks continue to receive European Central Bank support unless a political decision is made to withdraw central bank facilities. Greek membership in the euro depends on its ability to adjust to new incentives as the threat of exclusion from the rest of the bloc gains credibility.

-- Slow exit (next-most likely): Greece is excluded from the euro area after the remaining members are given time to build firewalls against the shock, such as deposit guarantees and liquidity injections by the ECB. While there isn’t a legal mechanism for exclusion, it could be done in practice by cutting Greek banks off from ECB facilities and payments systems. For the rest of the euro area, the firewalls are unlikely to be robust enough to deal with the impact of the Greek exit, while there may be market fallout because of the new precedent that euro membership can be rescinded, Goldman says.

-- Fast exit (least likely): Greece abandons the euro and introduces a new currency. A “sudden and abrupt” exit wouldn’t give other nations time to prepare and an insufficient firewall could mean an unraveling of the euro area.

What happens if the parties can’t agree to form a government?

The Greek constitution says that when a coalition can’t be formed, the president must broker a government of national unity, and if that can’t be done, new elections must be held. This is what happened after the May 6 election.

The BofA/Merrill note says were Syriza to fail to form a coalition a third election period would follow in which Greece would run out of money, the Troika would stop providing funds, and the ECB’s support for Greek banks would be at risk. The economic damage suffered during this period would require a new program to be negotiated with the Troika, with more funds.

Will Greece leave the euro?

Citigroup Inc. said even under a New Democracy-led government, Greece’s problems are so challenging that there’s a 50 to 75 percent chance it will get pushed out of the euro in the next year or two. That would happen sooner under a Syriza- led government.